Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby lawastooshort » Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:16 pm

notjarvis wrote:an awesome array of four skilled players to call on.


I think you mean ;)


Cheeseosophers vs E.L.O.
I could indeed win 3-0 but it's more likely that the lads mess up every important thing they try and I decide to play Halflings next season for an easier time of it. 2-1 to the Orcs.

Isa Black Stars vs Club 27
Top of the table clash! Humans have more basic skills and speed and I back them to win 2-1. Depends if Shiny Demon performs, mind.

Azorgh Rock-Knockers vs Gojira's Army
Yeah, Dwarves to win, but only 2-1 if Moose manages to get the ball to a skink and protect it properly and so score. If not 3-0 seems reasonable.

13th Doomwheel vs Brave Harts
Not having seen Abom play I can't be sure he'll win 2-1 so I'll go for 1-1. Presumably Abom will get a wizard's worth of inducements, which Skaven are best placed to take advantage of.

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby lawastooshort » Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:18 pm

DaigaroOgami wrote:Isa Black Stars vs Club 27
Percy seems to recall something about a Geologist's derby


Oh yeah, grudge match!

First player not to foul at least once each turn has pointy ears.

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby Gandalf » Tue Jul 07, 2015 6:46 pm

Vampires - Orcs... I'm going to say not a draw, as I don't think notj has drawn a game since at least season 4. He also tends to go on winning or losing runs, he lost last time so Vampires it is. As ever though in uneven matchups, it depends how well the inducements perform...
Humans - Khorne... This human team continue to impress - if they can click in the right places that is. But will they prevail in the battle of what are probably the top two Big Guys in the league? I'm going to say yes, but only just.
CDwarves - Lizards... New players tend to lose their first few matches whilst they learn more about the game, and this is not a favourable matchup at the best of times, so the Rock-Knockers to win here.
Skaven - Amazon... on paper I have to agree with Rav's analysis of this. However I want to see the Amazons get off the mark, they are due some better luck, and have some block/dodge themselves so I will go for a draw.

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby lawastooshort » Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:32 am

Not so much a prediction, but a tactical preview that comes from having to eat breakfast at my desk – maybe I should stick this in Percy’s ERVS? Ewww.


Humans – Khorne

Teams
It’s going to be close but the Khorne might just get a wizard (not sure how up to date Percy’s ERVS is). That’s what I’d pick, anyway, although I could almost understand the temptation of the more conservative choice of babe/apothecary (especially given the Khorne’s fragility so far). But anyone who wanted to win would take a wizard.

The Humans have by far the skill advantage, and also a considerable speed advantage, so they have to outplay the Khorne rather than outbash, although they probably can outbash them. The big demon is nice, but the humans have a ST5 blodger: crikey. I think Gandalf’s shown that if the demon blitzes every turn of the game then he should remove around 4 players. Frenzy and ST4 will be a factor but will be balanced against Block and Guard.

Game – Humans
Even without any real killing skills, I think if I was humans I’d want to receive. I could then take 8 turns scoring, and every Khorne player removed would just make it that much more difficult for Khorne to score next half, and more likely that the humans could then defend or force them to score quick enough to get the winner. Of course, they’d have to watch out for a potential lightning bolt, but a bit of care should cover for that. Humans could score fast, but then they’d be handing the initiative to the Khorne and asking for a ca.6 turn grind with the big demon smashing up a player every other turn.

However, if I was human and had to kick first, that would still be okay – as long as the Khorne could be kept out (less likely) or made to score in 7 turns (fairly likely). The humans have 2 MV8 and 3MV7 players – they can score in 2 turns if they don’t feck it up. They also have the bench (if casualties are kept down) to foul in order to encourage a quicker score.

But what if it was 1-0 Khorne at the start of the second half with Khorne to kick? I think it depends on the player count. If humans were winning this, I’d totally go for the quick score and try to get a defensive touchdown for the winner. If things were going badly, I’d understand the temptation to play for the draw.

Game – Khornes
Is this contradicting myself? No. Anyway – if I was Khorne, I’d want to receive first. That way they can control more where the game and more importantly the blocks go. I’d want to protect the ball well whilst grinding up the pitch for 8 turns, and I’d want to get a blitz with the big guy every turn, whilst taking care not to leave him exposed. He’s got Break Tackle, so as long as he isn’t allowed to get isolated he should be able to do what he wants. This is a risky strategy though – if anything less than 8 turns is used to score, I’d consider myself to have failed, and would expect to lose the game. It also depends on casualties. Khorne can’t afford to take more than a couple; Humans have a bench and can even afford to foul to strengthen their advantage.

What if Khorne kick first? Well, at least we’d be guaranteed one viewing of the big demon kicking the ball, which is good for everyone’s morale. I think then there are two choices – either play to stop the humans scoring completely (tricky, given their speed) or pressure them into scoring by turn 5. It’s difficult with the speed and skills available, but Khorne should be able to score back in 4 turns.

If it was 1-0 to the humans at the start of the second half with humans to kick then the most sensible option for Khorne would probably be to play for the draw.


CDwarves – Lizards
I don't think I'll have time for this.

Vampires – Orcs
Call it a cop out if you will but I’m not doing this one. Vampires just aren’t like a normal team in terms of how I see the game with them in any case.
Last edited by lawastooshort on Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby lawastooshort » Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:28 pm

Skaven – Amazon

Teams
Well, this one’s all about the Tackle, innit. There isn’t any! It’s going to be frustrating for the Skaven to get the Amazon to go down at all – especially if the ball gets to the ST4 catcher (who someone should probably murder before she also gets Block). The Amazon also have more players – if any rats go down the women can afford to do a bit of fouling to extend this advantage. The blitzers are beginning to get some skills – the Guard will be handy and I’d expect the MB blitzer to do a lot of blitzing against the soft AV7 rats.

On the other hand, it doesn’t look like the Amazon have any Tackle to tackle the 4 gutter runners, and they certainly don’t have the speed to deal with them. To keep up with the more mobile rats they might be tempted into more dodges than AG3 with Dodge probably should dodge. Although the Skaven don’t have as many players, if I was them and either of those statboosted catchers goes down I’d definitely risk a linerat to gangfoul them as heavily as I could.

I’m not sure how up to date the PERVS is on this one – you’d expect it to be right up to date concerning a team of scantily dressed women – but there will some inducements going to the Skaven. Wizard should be the first pick, and then I’d be thinking about either babes and apothecary or some mercenary linerats, possible including one with Kick, which could be useful given the differences in speed between the teams.

First Half – Skaven
Skaven want to kick first so they can use their full numbers for defending – as long as they don’t lose all their Gutter Runners doing so they have a good chance of scoring back. The trick will be balancing how much to commit the gutter runners to defending by hassling the ball carrier. If, for example, there’s a chance of getting multiple gutter runners between the ball and the line of scrimmage before the ball is adequately protected, this is a risk totally worth committing all 4 for. But if not, they just need to be patient, protect the best players, and be ready to pounce on mistakes.

There’ll be a point where the Skaven will have to decide – do they commit hard to stop the Amazon scoring at all, or do they do all they can to try to make the Amazon score and leave enough (2 turns) in the half to equalise?

But what if Skaven receive first? It’s tricky, but I would want to score in 5 turns to make it possible but risky for the Amazon to score back – hopefully the Amazon will push too hard and make a mistake, and the Skaven will have a gutter runner in range to go 2-0 up at half time.

First Half – Amazon
There’s a bit too much talking going on at lunchtime for me to concentrate properly on this now, and someone is complaining about the fridge again.

Anyway, I think as Amazons I would want to receive first – taking as long as possible to cage down the pitch, using one Guard blitzer to protect the cage and the other to support the MB blitzer doing as much violence to vulnerable targets as possible. But if I kicked first, I’d be happy with that too – trusting in my team’s skills to get the rats to score quickly enough to have a chance to equalise before half time.

Second Half
If the Amazons received first and are 1-0 up, then the Skaven have to score quickish and then pressurise the Amazons into giving up a defensive touchdown. But this will depend on how many players are left, really.

If the Amazons received first and it’s 1-1, then the Skaven can win by taking 6-7 turns to score – but again, if they can hold out or not depends on how many players are left.

If the Skaven received first and are 1-0 up, then if the Amazons score quickly, the Skaven would be favourites to win if they have gutter runners left – so playing for a draw seems sensible if boring.

If the Skaven received first and it’s 1-1, then Amazons have to take as long as possible to score and they win, unless the rats can work the 1 turn touch down.

If any team is up 2-0 at half time then they just need to not feck it all up to keep the win, of course.

Since the wizard can stop a scoring chance and even lead to a defensive touchdown from it (particularly if, say, you have fast AG4 players about), it can obviously have quite an effect and really change the natural flow (dice/coaching) of the match. It could also do nothing...

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby DaigaroOgami » Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:26 pm

Christ on a bike La what did you have for breakfast, Percy's SpeedShrooms?

Excellent in depthness, Percy says you can stick it all in his ERVs if you want.

Percy wouldn't say the humans are favourites though, they've just had the first three games against the three newest coaches. Surely the Dwarves are favourites.

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby lawastooshort » Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:33 pm

I had fever for breakfast.

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby Moose » Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:44 pm

I am sad not to have my crushing defeat predicted in such detail, but I guess there's only so any ways to say moose is a noob.
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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby lawastooshort » Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:54 pm

Sorry, I mostly ran out of time – if I get a few minutes spare before Sunday I’ll give it a go :)

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby Red Lion Three » Sat Jul 11, 2015 11:33 am

Cheeseosophers vs E.L.O. - Hungry Vamps mistake Orc team bus for a giant jar of jalapenos. Discovering their error, they find their relish in the game instead and win 2-0.

Isa Black Stars vs Club 27 - A lot of roaring by Khorne is met by a stern "We don't want any of that round here, thank you very much" from the humans. By the end of the ticking off the Shiny one is wearing a high-viz jacket and helping school children and old ladies across the street. 2-0 Black Stars

Azorgh Rock-Knockers vs Gojira's Army - I think the dwarves will be able to hold it together for a 2-0 win.

13th Doomwheel vs Brave Harts - Hmmm, dunno. Depends if the gutter runners run rings round me. No idea really - 2-1 Brave Harts?

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby Gandalf » Sun Jul 12, 2015 9:43 pm

Week 4 results
It was a week of tricky fixtures to predict, with the human game being split 3-3, the vampires 4-2 and 3 people correctly predicting a draw in the Amazon-Skaven match. After the dust settled, the two leaders only got 1 result right. Everyone else got 2, except for yours truly who got 3. Percy gets a special prize for being the only being to predict a win for the lizards. Rumours abound of mushrooms being involved in the exceptional events that took place in that match.

Standings

8 = Raveen, notjarvis
7 = Gandalf
6 = la, RL3 (1 week missed)
5 = Percy

Well it's all looking a lot closer now.

It's catch-up week next week - just the one match. The Vampire Cheeseosophers play the Amazon Brave Harts. Everyone has already submitted a winner for this one, but can re-submit if they want.

After last week's mess-up I've decided I may as well post my workings. I was going to put these in a spoiler tag but it seems we don't have one - I will look into that, there is the possibility to add custom tags.


Workings-out
Week 3 standings
7 = Raveen, notjarvis
4 = la, gandalf, RL3 (1 week missed)
3 = Daigaro

notj... Vamps/Khorne/Dwarf/Skaven = 1
Rav... Vamps/Khorne/CDwarves/Skaven = 1
Percy... Orc/Khorne/Lizards/Draw = 2
la... Orc/Human/Dwarves/Draw = 2
Gandalf... Vamps/Human/CDwarves/Draw = 3
RL3... Vamps/Human/CDwarves/Amazon = 2

Results = Vamps/Humans/Lizards/Draw

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby Red Lion Three » Tue Jul 14, 2015 11:51 am

Okay, the Vamps-'Zons game seems to be going down tonight. bbtactics has been re-consulted for Zons strategy. Conclusion - in retrospect it would have been better to give my two linewomen with block the tackle skill instead. Totally forgot that advice. Would certainly have helped against the Skaven! Oh well.

Prediction for tonight's game: my thinking is that it all comes down to whether the Zons can knock one or two of the dodging Vampires out of the game. If they can, the Zons might take it. If not... well, the Vamps could run riot for the second game in a row. They're just individually too strong. So... well, I'm going to be optimistic and say 2-1 Zons. Though if La puts three past me I wouldn't be surprised.

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby notjarvis » Tue Jul 14, 2015 12:02 pm

Vamps to win (IF I haven't predicted already).

Chaos Dwarfs to beat the Orcs on Sunday.

Not sure what else is on sunday?
<Remember to put something witty in here>

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby lawastooshort » Tue Jul 14, 2015 12:19 pm

I hope to win, of course, but the Amazons are pretty strong defensively so I wouldn't actually bet on it. Should be a good match up and hopefully not too stodgy despite our very average speeds :)

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Re: Season 6 Prediction Thread of Foretelling

Postby Gandalf » Tue Jul 14, 2015 12:26 pm

So la, what's your prediction?
-----------
Going by notj's post, it's Orcs vs CDwarves this weekend too, so make predictions for that too people (no other matches this Sunday afaik).


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