Rolling Thunder BBL Season 7

[id3nt1ty]

First post reserved for fluff and stuff.

The Schedule
P.E.R.V.S.
Predictions

Don't forget to upload your games to http://www.gandalfgames.net/bbdb/

[Red Lion Three]

Am-Und_s7wk1.png (499.69 KiB) Viewed 7546 times

Match report to follow. In short: Moose's new team were up against it even without the swing on the D6 being 27 in the Amazons favour. Ouch.

In atrocious wet conditions the Amazons kicked off. The Undead managed to stun a Zon, but their turn ended when the ball pick-up was fumbled. In reply the Zons injured a Wight, only for the pesky chap to regenerate (Ka-pa-zow!) and stand on the side cheering his team on. While the Undead got a few more defender downs in their second turn, in a pattern repeated too often during the game they failed to break armour. And then the pick-up went wrong again.

In fact, it was a few turns before the ball became important. There was a long period of bashing, in which the extra skills on the Amazons and the dodge-based ability to ignore "defender stumbles" came in useful. Eventually the Amazons were able to clear a path up the right, pick up the ball and stall in the top corner. While Moose sent a Wight in bravely to try and recover the ball, the carrier was well surrounded and the Amazons were able to walk over the line towards the end of the half.

The second half saw a change of weather. It came out nice. The Amazons picked up and formed up on the left. Only for Arthur, a Wight, to move through a gap in the line, come round from the centre and nobble the ball carrier over on the wing. Needless to say Arthur was quickly surrounded. He was successfully knocked down, the ball was picked up and the Amazons again formed up on the left. Although the ball carrier was nobbled again by a wizard, and injuries traded, the Amazons were able to move to the top left and stall again. They walked over for a score, leaving the Undead insufficient time to score two in reply. The Wights went for a bit of showboating instead - pick-up, long pass, catch, +SPP. And why not. Things had been stacked against them all game:

D6: +13 Zons to -14 Undead
2D6: +13 Zons to -2 Undead
Block success: 70% to 38%

Thanks for the game Moose. With a bit of block, and more things going your way, I'm sure your team will be much harder to beat.

[Gandalf]

Wood Elves & Halflings star in "how not to block"!!!



Also, treemen suck.

[notjarvis]

1-1 Draw between the Newly formed Dark Elves (with a bit of help from Morg) and the Undercheesers.

More to write tomorrow but the 69% blocking success rate for the Undercheesers was quite extraordinary, along with a +25 d6 rate where David Bowie did not fail one really stupid....

[DaigaroOgami]

PirlOrc scores, rats lie down lots, the crowd favours the rats but the Ducklingz did a lot of Tackle training pre season...



The rats turn up to the Ducklingz home ground (with a whopping capacity of 12) with a big 'orrible Rat Ogre and a dangerous looking wizard in tow...

Ducklingz win the toss and elect to kick; hoping to force/let/encourage the rats to score quick in the classic 2-1 grind stylee... Rats get a quick snap to avoid getting hit straight off

All 4 gutterlickers made it downfield to take up catching positions close to the Ducklingz endzone, who all then got swamped by Orcs who weren't hindered by tackle zones anymore... with the ball out of reach Gurtrude started systematically flattening gutterlickers for fun.

Around turn 5 there were only 5 rats left on the pitch, and Percy made a b-line to mark Starscream who was dithering in the backfield. Starscream panicked, fell over and PirlOrc casually strolled up the pitch to juggle the ball into the Endzone in turn 8.

Second half the Ducklingz set up to gather a deep kick and an attempt to smother as many rats as possible. The rats didn't want to play along; first kicking so short the ball ended up on the LoS, then that dangerous looking smeg of a wizard blotto-ed 4 orcs down, breaking Ethel's neck (-AG...) and making it easy to steal the ball. The rats shifted to their left flank; but Gurtrude elbow dropped the ball carrier and pumped the ball into the crowd... who was obviously a rat who lumped the ball into the Ducklingz endzone.

PirlOrc grumbled as he almost had to break a sweat running back to gather the ball, then gave a sigh of disgust when the rest of his team were more bothered in squabbling over who got to hit a rat next than coming to protect him.

Two gutterlickers ran the length of the pitch and got the ball free, which landed in the endzone again. PirlOrc got up, dusted himself off and twonked a gutterlicker into the ball, which went off the pitch, into the hands of another ratfan and ended up just outside the endzone on the other side of the pitch. By this time Gurtrude and Harriet had spotted what was going on and came back to help defend. More gutterlickers scurried about and the ball went back & forth for a bit until PirlOrc & Co finally cleared the annoying superspeed gutterlickers off the pitch to keep the ball safe.

While all that was going on Fela Kuti squished a rat with the power of jazz trumpet, another rat died, and so did Percy, for the 4th time in his career. However, fearing a telling off from his wife he got better again and watched the rest of the match from the stands with Man of the Match Goblotelli, he never even made it off at the subs bench.

The rats finished the game with the Rat Ogre and a linerat left on the pitch and PirlOrc couldn't be bothered to pick the ball up.

Nuffle was pretty even, no significant swings in either direction for either coach.

Good game Abom!

[id3nt1ty]

9 KO's, 3 injuries, 2 deaths. Looks like someone is qualifying for the cup...

[Red Lion Three]

Match report added above.

[DaigaroOgami]

Wood Elves & Halflings star in "how not to block"!!!



Also, treemen suck.

ERgh, that looks horrible. Thank you guys for having that Match Of Skulls so the rest of us don't have to.

[lawastooshort]

More to write tomorrow but the 69% blocking success rate for the Undercheesers was quite extraordinary

Was it? – I mostly only did 2d blocks, nearly always with Block/Wrestle and mostly not against Block, so it’s probably about expected?

[notjarvis]

More to write tomorrow but the 69% blocking success rate for the Undercheesers was quite extraordinary

Was it? – I mostly only did 2d blocks, nearly always with Block/Wrestle and mostly not against Block, so it’s probably about expected?

Think it's a little above expected looking again.

Don't think I've ever had a block success rate that High, even with the Saurii and all that ST4 block, so that coloured my view somewhat.

That and that the one single dice block you made, by a goblin on a blitzer was a success when it was evens as to you turning over.

You rolled few pushes, and a lot of defender stumbles which led to good blocking success versus a team with no dodge..

P.S.
For comparison, if we consider 2 dice blocks alone, where the block is "unsuccessful" not regarding skills (i.e. both dice show a push or attacker down), even with a 2 dice block this sort of result should turn up a quarter of the time.

The Dark Elves rolled 13/41 which is a bit above average at 32% ish

The Underworld rolled 5/28 2 Dice block rolls in this way, which is significantly lower, around 18%

[Gandalf]

Instinctively I'd say 60%-65% would be about average for 2D skilled players vs unskilled ones. 69% is pretty high but yesterday the amazons got 70% in a similar matchup (block/dodge vs lack of skills).

The D6 is where you can definitely say la had made the correct sacrifices to Nuffle though!

I will post a proper match report for our game this evening.

ERgh, that looks horrible. Thank you guys for having that Match Of Skulls so the rest of us don't have to.

You're welcome! I suppose it was good to get it in a game where it affected both teams relatively equally, and didn't impact on the final result.

[Raveen]

A 2D block with Block/Wrestle against no block/wrestle has a 75% chance of succeeding if you class success as the opposing player lying down.

factoring in that some blocks in the game will have been 1D or Block vs Block, 69% is quite possible as an expected blocking average.

[notjarvis]

A 2D block with Block/Wrestle against no block/wrestle has a 75% chance of succeeding if you class success as the opposing player lying down.

factoring in that some blocks in the game will have been 1D or Block vs Block, 69% is quite possible as an expected blocking average.

It's certainly possible, but not all that likely (versus a team where 5 of them had block).

(Block featured in Merely 2 of the 22 successful Blocks, 2 out of 4 single dice blocks were a success though, which pushed the average down slightly)
las success was mostly due to a 1/4 of his dice being Defender stumbles, and he rolled fewer than average 2 d blocks with no positive result as I noted above.

Not so extraordinary maybe, but it certainly felt as if the block dice were against.

[Gandalf]

Come v2 of the website all these stats and probabilities will be accessible to all. So you can see at a glance what skills were involved in every block, and a block probability percentage for each block & overall.

This is definitely moving into "put it in the stats thread" territory, but...

The Underworld rolled 5/28 2 Dice block rolls in this way, which is significantly lower, around 18%

Yes it's lower but not in a significant way - it's only 2 dice rolls below average. The chances of getting 5 or fewer failures out of 28 is about 14%. So not high but not tiny either. For comparison the chance of getting exactly 6/28 is 16.4%, and 7/28 is 17.1%. So 5 or less, 6 or 7 are all similar chances. If it was 4/28 then the odds on that are around 1% so would be statistically significant.

Block featured in Merely 2 of the 22 successful Blocks

Isn't this an irrelevant stat - assuming BBM treats wrestle as a "success" you should be counting block & wrestle.

[notjarvis]

Come v2 of the website all these stats and probabilities will be accessible to all. So you can see at a glance what skills were involved in every block, and a block probability percentage for each block & overall.

This is definitely moving into "put it in the stats thread" territory, but...

The Underworld rolled 5/28 2 Dice block rolls in this way, which is significantly lower, around 18%

Yes it's lower but not in a significant way - it's only 2 dice rolls below average. The chances of getting 5 or fewer failures out of 28 is about 14%. So not high but not tiny either. For comparison the chance of getting exactly 6/28 is 16.4%, and 7/28 is 17.1%. So 5 or less, 6 or 7 are all similar chances. If it was 4/28 then the odds on that are around 1% so would be statistically significant.

Block featured in Merely 2 of the 22 successful Blocks

Isn't this an irrelevant stat - assuming BBM treats wrestle as a "success" you should be counting block & wrestle.

When i say significantly lower, it's significantly lower than what the Delfs rolled if I rolled 28 dice with the same percentages I'd have rolled 4 more "no result" 2 Dice Blocks.

For the "block" I just counted where la picked the Both Down result, and it resulted in a "successful" block, so that would cover wrestle and block i guess>

I'm not particularly annoyed or anything, it was a fun game, but it certainly felt a bit stacked on the dice, so I'm quite happy to get a draw out of it.