What Socrates Thinks - SEASON GRAND FINALE

[lawastooshort]

What Archimedes Thinks – A Thoughtful Season Preview

Everyone likes a winner, or something – so here Archimedes presents three potential league winners this season. Remember – Archimedes is practically the founder of Western Science and has ST4 Mighty Blow.


Idanmel = Amazon
The Reigning League Champion Returns! With the Statistically Second Best Team of All at TV1000! In a league which I believe has only 1 player with Tackle in the whole of it! He basically can’t lose, as long as he sacks every one of his players to level up.

On the other hand, the Amazon’s history in RTBBL isn’t quite as illustrious as Idan’s, unless you count racking up consecutive draws records? (Although id’s women got a third place finish way back half a dozen seasons ago!) And we are used to seeing Idan playing with a team that has something above average – something that sticks out. Skink pace and saurus strength, or Elf speed and agility, for example. The Amazons don’t have anything that sticks out. Something that helps give an idea of how they’ll play, that is to say. They’re just slow and dodgy. How will Idan handle them? I am quite looking forward to finding out – it’s an interesting mix of quite an offensive coach and quite a potentially stodgy team.

Daigaro = Khorne
Even an unrolled dice is physically against Daigaro, and BBM showed that Khorne earn on average an entire 0.01 point LESS than Underworld per match (since the adoption of 3 points for a win). This suggests he might as well give up now. On the other hand, someone recently won the biggest online BB league playing a Khorne team without a Bloodthirster, like Daigaro doesn’t have, AND it’s been recently proven that the dice rolls actually have no effect on a game’s outcome, so it’s just a morale issue of knowing that Nuffle hates him that Daigaro has to deal with. So if he can learn to embrace this, he is odds on favourite to win the league.

As a coach, Daigaro was practically third last season, and this season there are 2 teams less – another indication that he will come first this time round.

As a team, the Khorne players have picked up a small handful of pre-season level ups, more of the quality than quantity kind – including a +ST and a +AG. That must be nice, and will soon offer the team top top options. David Bowie, for example, recently played against a passing Khorne team! They lost.

Horns and Frenzy means there will be danger all over the place, but lack of Block at the moment means that this danger will also be dangerfying the Khorne team.

Red Lion 3 = Undead
TV1000 Undead win a massive 1.67 points per game on average, which is far far beyond any other race. Even when they develop, they are still considerably first. Furthermore, Red Lion 3, whatever his press appearances might lead you to believe, is no rookie coach completely out of his depth: he certainly knows what he is doing now. In fact, I think he was even in a cup final the other season (whereas if I remember rightly Archimedes’ last cup run was ended when he left the field to drink a fan’s cheese: well done Archimedes). Cups aren’t league titles of course, but it’s still nearly a trophy. His chances are further boosted by the symbolism of his name: Red is the Colour of Luck, Lions are the King of, to be accurate, the Savannah (which a Bloodbowl pitch so closely resembles), and 3 is the Number of Luck. The league is practically his to lose.

Against that, we can consider that he is a coach with a new team, that, despite its 100% win record, he may not yet have mastered. However, RL3 is probably used to the general speed and agility of the team after playing Amazons and Underworld, and will now be able to add the Might of… those other players the Undead have. The bloody mummies.

Interestingly, RL has gone for the 4 ghoul team, which makes it a bit more vulnerable than it might otherwise be, and bit elfier. But there’s no TacklePOMBer in the league to take advantage of the fact, which is a shame.




(Stats taken from information Aristotle and Archimedes recorded about 18 months ago from BBM based on about 250,000 games. It was a fun evening.)

[Gandalf]

despite its 100% win record

It's not correct now and it wasn't correct 18 months ago :p

[lawastooshort]

Oh, Archimedes must have forgotten to clarify "recent". He's been a bit busy founding western civilisation today and took a severe blow to the head last night.

[Red Lion Three]

Roar!

A good review. The Red Lion, and his assistant Yellow Tiger, are indeed a fairly experienced coaching team by now. They didn't really intend to give the opposite impression... [mumble something about playing underworld doing this all on its own]...

Your cup memory is correct: the Bravehearts (Amazon) made it to two finals, only to be defeated by first Rav and his mighty Chorf Rockknockers, and then Abom's 1-TTD'ing Rats. (Rats beating cats, oh the ignominy. Miaow. It still hurts.) So, Idanmel, this bodes well for your chances! Stodgy - and the horror of a ST 4 catcher, which was a very useful level-up - was indeed a good gameplan: casting self-preservation to the wind, the Bravehearts shunned column defence and got up close and personal, using dodge defensively to gum up the works of their opponents' offensive machine. I recommend said strategy, at least until a team with much Tackle appears.

The Undead's "100% win record" is, as WG says, a bit ambitious... currently w-d-l is 2-0-2, though at least one of those games was against higher TV opposition. Are Undead teams really that good? I guess if A&A have done the stats, then they must be. But its a bit odd. Mummies are really good, as they have high ST and no negatraits. But no-one else is particularly strong or fast. I'm surprised Skaven/Lizards aren't in the top two, just 'cos they can score so quickly. They seem best in our league, from what I've seen. But perhaps they need an extra few hundred TV before they become really good?

[Gandalf]

Are Undead teams really that good? I guess if A&A have done the stats, then they must be. But its a bit odd.

I'm not sure if it's because we play bashy teams poorly... or speedy/agile teams well.... but there does seem a bit of a disconnect between RTBBL trends and the rest of the blood bowl world in how these respective styles do.

Oh, and thanks la for grabbing all those old stats, it does sound like ol' Archie had a fine evening.

[lawastooshort]

I had some top top stats for the next 3 previews in a draft email from lunch at work, but managed to not save it. Gnng. They may have to wait until tomorrow now.

But!

Are Undead teams really that good?

Yes! At Starting TV, they are head and shoulders above everyone else. At all TVs, they are still well ahead of Lizards, Wood Elfs, Chaos Dwarfs, and Dark Elves, in that order. *

I'm not sure if it's because we play bashy teams poorly... or speedy/agile teams well.... but there does seem a bit of a disconnect between RTBBL trends and the rest of the blood bowl world in how these respective styles do.

Well, I partly agree, but...
1 - I don't know if I'd call lizards a speedy/agile team, more a hybrid team.
2 - Presumably BBDB could look at the stats we have so far and see how well races perform?

I think we play bashy teams a bit worse as:
1 - There is not as much cynicism in our play as in some other leagues, if you want to say it like that
2- There is less violence - there's not many players like Gertrude, are there
3 - And this is partly because the league is not as perpetual as some. Some other leagues have teams develop over 50+ games, which enables the slower-developing bashy teams to get really mean. Chaos and Nurgle (as I'll surely mention in the Nurgle review ) have dominated the top 4 teams (out of 100+) of UKBBL for the last 5 seasons, and are generally 2200TV+

Oh, and thanks la for grabbing all those old stats, it does sound like ol' Archie had a fine evening.

Thanks! The weakness of the data is that I don't recall exactly when I copied it - the file saves I have are from a period of Oct2014-Jun2015. They are also not complete - I think I have win/draw/loss percentages for all races at all TVs combined, but I only have specific TV ranges for the teams that were in the league at the time I did the copying... I also have, from one specific season's set of teams, the win/draw/loss percentages vs the other teams in the league. At the time I was interested in the tiers ideas, and also in a system for predicting final league rankings.

* edit - we aren't that non-representative - we've had 2 lizard league wins, a wood elf league and cup win, a chaos dwarf cup win

[Raveen]

We've also had Khemri and Underworld wins so make of that what you will.

[Gandalf]

Yes la I would agree with your assessment. The ducklingz are the only bashy team to ascend to high TV. No experienced Chaos teams to speak of. And for all that my Nurgle team look decent on paper now, I do drool at what they will be like in another 10-15 level ups. I think the lack of another Gertrude-like player is down to the relative lack of games too.

2 - Presumably BBDB could look at the stats we have so far and see how well races perform?

Yes. Not sure the data set is big enough yet though. Hopefully BBDB will be rolled out to more groups in the coming months and we'll have meaningful sample sizes then.

[Raveen]

The Khemri hit high tv too, not quite as high as the orcs, but high enough.

[lawastooshort]

Interestingly, BBM showed that Khemri do worse as they progress in TV. Overall, they are the 14th best team.

[lawastooshort]

What Archimedes Thinks – The Second Part of His Thoughtful Season 9 Preview

Archimedes wanted to do the Norse and the Nurgle at the same time, since they have so many similarities. Both begin with N! Both, according to BBM, have the exact same level of performance! At all TVs combined, Nurgle earn as many points per game as the Norse, but win and lose less. Both have proven coaches with multiple titles to their name. Phwoar, as Pythagoras would say.

Raveen = Norse
Norse! Crikey. At starting TV, Norse are better than Nurgle – and Underworld, Vampires, Khorne, and Goblins, something supported by the last NAF stats Archimedes looked at too, which show Norse as the Top 7th Team. Norse can also perform at higher TVs, with at least one Norse team in the UKBBL top tier for the last few seasons. However, let us not be deceived – their advantage surely comes at low TV, where all that Block is a right pain. The Berserkers are also quite nice, only needing two normal rolls to become horrible killers.

So – does this mean that Coach Rav is a nailed on cert for the title? Well, yes, probably. He’s got the team, the coaching pedigree, and he’s the only coach in the league with good recent form, having won 100% of his last competitive match. This compares well to everyone else’s 0%. You could argue with that, but Aristotle invented arguing, and Archimedes invented the Archimedes Screw, so you shouldn’t.

So what are the actual weakness of the poor defenceless Norse? Well, the most striking one is that Coach Rav is developing a bit of a reputation as a cup specialist who might not be able to go the distance in a full 7 match league season. The other striking one is AV7. Armour Value 7! Nearly everywhere! Get a bit of Mighty Blow in their faces and it’s likely to hurt, if you can get as many POWs as some coaches do. They can hit hard but are fragile – although they can get 3 players with AV8 and ST4 or better. They’ve also got neither speed (just a pair of MA7 runners) nor agility (AG3 all round). But Rav’s used to that, as a Khemri coach, so he can probably work out what to do.

Gandalf = Nurgle
Nurgle! Arg. Nurgle have won 3 out of the last 5 UKBBL titles. They are mean. But! Overall they don’t generally do any better than Norse – which is obviously a good sign for them, as the Norse are one of the favourites for the title this year. Nurgle are worse at a lower team value, but they’ve had a season to develop, so aren’t at a lower team value, and have a good starting selection of skills – and stat boosts. Including an elven rotter. And Block on all of the Nurgle Warriors. They have a lot of strengths – such as their strength, and their combination of violence and pitch control skills. They can even disturb your ball handling! Further, Gandalf is a proven coach, winner of both leagues and cups: it wouldn’t be over the top to bet heavily on the Nurgles to improve on their previous second place finish and win the league.

Do these stinking mutating monsters have any weaknesses? Well, yes. They are slow. They only have one elven rotter. The rotters tend to fall apart quite hard. They are prone to draws (they have the second highest ratio of draws, in fact) (although this particular team is not), which is probably because they are defensively solid, but don’t have a reliable way of scoring quickly (although they certainly can manager 2-3 turn scores if required). Further, most coaches are likely to get enough inducements this season to have a nice chance of ruining the Nurgle offense with a wizard, and some more left over for things like Respect.

But as the Nurgles’ last outing showed, Gandalf’s used to the team now, and already knows what to do. There may be a stinky steamroller this season, in Archimedes’ thoughtful opinion.

[lawastooshort]

What Archimedes Thinks – The Third Part of His Thoughtful Season 9 Preview

id = Underworld
Underworld. PHWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAA-

What Aristotle Thinks – His Thoughtful Season 9 Preview

Hello. Due to some unexpected circumstances, Archimedes has had to have a lie down, and it therefore falls to me, Aristotle, to conclude our season preview.

id = Underworld
Now, although – unlikely as it may seem for a manly team of ancient Greek philosophers, if you are ruled by vulgar outmoded prejudice – Archimedes is a perfectly straight strapping young man who has no interest whatsoever in hanging about slightly too long in the dressing room showers after a match and has never been observed to make any camp sounds on a blood bowl pitch whatsoever (that was probably the thralls) (furthermore, he only bites the thralls, and only because he has to – he doesn’t enjoy it), it does have to be said that he has a bit of an admiring mancrush on a good mutating troll.

And I, Aristotle, do like a good bit of ethics, as you may have noticed if you’ve read any of my publications – so it is quite difficult for the both of us not to rather heavily favour id’s Underworld team for the title. Trolls! The Moral Advantage! What’s not to like? There’s not much cheese in the team, but that’s about the only weakness.

But enough about all that – what does science say? Science says Underworld are right up there at the top table of teams, coming in at Top 19th Best Team! That’s much higher than, for example, Goblins or Halflings. Furthermore, once, an Underworld team got to Tier 2 of UKBBL, after many many seasons of trying, and then had such a good season the coach retired what was left of them. This is clearly a race that can make the big time. Of course, in RTBBL, we’ve had a Mighty Underworld team win a league title and make a cup final whilst not at all finishing a very low bottom half of the table the other two seasons. I believe that the other Underworld team that has competed in a league so far did not finish last, either.

Furthermore, Khorne are one of the favourites for the title this year, and Underworld gain a massive 0.01 point per game more than Khorne, so you have to conclude that they are even more favourites. Especially since Khorne have Horns on practically every player, which is more Mutations than this Underworld team have, and Mutations have been established by some to be cheating, and so Khorne are cheating harder than Underworld, so Underworld therefore have even more of a Moral Advantage.

What about the coach? Well, id is a good coach who is prone to distraction, seems to be the general consensus. He hasn’t won anything yet, but has consistent mid-table (or better) finishes which will surely be built on by the fever coaching Underworld provides. It is likely, in any case, that he will beat me.

And what about specifics on the team? Well, they’ve had three or so games to get their eye in, and have developed a pair of the essential hard hitting blitzers, and will soon be growing additional heads on some of the goblins. It’s the start of a top top team!

Abom = Goblins
Well. What to say about the goblins? Statistically, they are the worst team in bloodbowl with less than a point on average per game. However! Abom is a cup winning flair coach, and just last season I saw a goblin game win 4 games in a season, only one of which was an admin win due to the opponent quitting the league. It seems reasonable therefore to predict the gobbos to finish around midtable at least, but it would be unlikely that they make a sustained tilt for the title. Even though, with a season behind them already, they are one of the more experienced teams about this year.

A lot is going to depend on two things: how much will Abombom play to win vs play to have fun vs play to cripple and maim? And how is his team value going to compare to the slew of new teams who will not permit him as many inducements as he may like?

And – a third thing – how will his bribes work? And perhaps a fourth thing – how will his secret weapons perform? And if you want a fifth thing – how many casualties will his Piling On Mighty Blow But Unfortunately Not Warpstone Trolls cause?

He will be the underdog in perhaps every match apart from against the Vampires, but Abom will still be playing for pride. And fun. And Respect.

la = Vampires
Last, but hopefully not actually last, despite how many solid league favourites objective analysis has revealed so far, come the Vampires.

The Cheeseosophers are a top top team, make no mistake about it. Or are they? Vampires are the 18th team, ranked by average performance – worse even than humans. They have the most deaths and KOs in RTBBL history. Three quarters of the team is made up of eejits who can’t run, or punch, or take a punch, or dodge.

On the other hand, the Cheeseosophers have finished first and second in their two seasons and have a coach who has the mental fortitude to play over 100 competitive games of Underworld without quitting OR passing out with Joy (or rather, the Moral Advantage of having done so). And on the pitch they are led by the towering intellects of Aristotle, Archimedes, Socrates, and the Other One. Pythagoras. The idiot who is unavailable for the next match because he has to have a pinched nerve checked out by the doctor because he fell on a troll.

It would therefore be disingenuous to suggest that the Cheeseosophers are not odds on favourites for a comfortably secure lower mid-table position, possibly even challenging for the Europa League spots but definitely staying away from relegation.

[id3nt1ty]

Excellent la, well written and very enjoyable!


FEEEVER!

[lawastooshort]

Thanks! I might be too busy to get to a Week 1 Match Analysis

[Gandalf]

The Khemri hit high tv too, not quite as high as the orcs, but high enough.

I don't think they're in the same casualty-causing league as long-serving Chaos, Orc or Nurgle teams, probably as most of the team is AV7 and your strong guys only have access to S skills. For evidence... they're showing as very similar average casualties caused as my Nurgle team despite playing twice as many games.

They are prone to draws (they have the second highest ratio of draws, in fact) (although this particular team is not)

It's because they are managed by a coach who only recently ended a 24-match draw-less streak (I am the ying to Red Lion Three's yang).