RT BBL Season 9 Predictions Thread

[Gandalf]

You're all mad for predicting It's A Sign to score 3+ in any game. It's never happened yet. Even if I had the potential to score 3, I would probably stall and hit people instead.

I would say, last time I played Goblins it was 2-0, and that flattered me as the first required some serious elfballing in turn 8. Abom did well.

However! The Norse are on a run of bad form, which you’d expect them to turn around immediately, so let’s go with 3-0.

Your logic is flawed! Their last 3 have been win, draw, draw. I'd hardly call that bad form. I suggest you change your prediction to the far-more-realistic 4-0 as a result.

However! Star Player Aristotle is on a season long run of nearly 1 in 4 dice rolled being 1s, so let’s go with 4-0.

Although we should bear in mind that overall, the entire Vampire team are on a season long run of nearly 1 in 5 dice rolled being 1s, so let’s go with 5-0 to the Norsemen.

Oooh I can provide those stats. :-) (at the end of the season)

[lawastooshort]

Hmm, WDD isn't awful, I guess, but it's only 3 games. However, I will concede and change it to 4-0.

Oooh I can provide those stats. :-) (at the end of the season)

So can I! Although it relies on manipulating excel data and possibly introducing errors.

So far the Cheeseosophers have rolled 694 d6, 135 of which have been 1s - 19.5%

Aristotle has rolled 235 of those dice (fairly incredibly), rolling 53 1s - 22.6%. He's rolled triple 1s twice.

He is probably the worst player in the history of RTBBL, but I am quite fond of him nonetheless.

[Red Lion Three]

The Entheogen Experiment vs No Stable Isotopes - 2-2

The Cheeseosophers vs Iceweb Podcasters - 2-1

It's A Sign! vs Punch Dummies - 2-1

Momma vs Revenge of last plaice - 2-1 A lot to play for here: the Amazons trying to overhaul the Golbins, and the Undead after their first competitive win. Both teams lack mobility. But the Zons have 7 blodgers, and the Undead have only one player with tackle - and said player now only has ST 2.
If the Undead can score, their season will gain a very pleasing symmetry. Unless they score twice and ruin things by winning! All team members under strict orders to wear red things all week and listen to Eye of The Tiger at least twice before the game.

[Gandalf]

Oh la, you make me want to write loads of stat pages, just to save you the time!

As an example, I have my injury dice code to hand, so in the space of 60s I put this together. Completely coincidentally it shows an area where you have had good luck.
Injury dice - rolling 10+, in other words, always an injury regardless of scenario (expected 16.666%)
Cheeseosophers 10/39 (25.6%)
No Stable Isotopes 13/23 (20.6%)
...
It's A Sign 12.7% (was 10.9% before Sunday)
Punch Dummies 12.7%
Revenge of last plaice 10.6% (ouch)

"just" a matter of codifying it really...

[lawastooshort]

That's nice - it felt like Archimedes was being particularly brutal. Still, smaller sample size and less important to the team than d6 so scant consolation


Edit: it was mostly just Aristotle that prompted me to bother looking in the first place. He's a lovable eejit and he's looking toward to season ten

Edit edit: how does 13/23=20%?

[Gandalf]

That's nice - it felt like Archimedes was being particularly brutal. Still, smaller sample size and less important to the team than d6 so scant consolation

Yup... numbers only prove what they prove... it's hard to say "I've been unlucky this season" as there are just so many variables. You have to narrow down the proposition - "Archimedes has been an eejit" or "It's A Sign have had bad luck with causing injuries" are better statements... it's tough to argue against them

Edit edit: how does 13/23=20%?

This is why number-crunching should be automated as far as possible! It's 13/63

[Raveen]

Something I was going to suggest for bbdb but send appropriate here:

Add a Did You Know box to some pages in bbdb that takes stats from the database and presents them in the form:

[b] Did You Know[\b] that Archimedes is the unluckiest player in the RTBBL with a 25% chance of failure.

Or whatever

[Red Lion Three]

Second that! Good idea.

[Gandalf]

I'd have to code in a definition of an interesting statistic.... maybe though. It's always good to have something to show for all the data that's being collected.

Short term I've realised what I've talked about above is really not that hard to code, I might get a page with a big dump of numbers up tonight.

[Gandalf]

Woop woop! It works!
http://gandalfgames.net/bbdb/competitio ... tion_id=11
La - hope you enjoy it. You can now copy & paste from one page instead of many!

[lawastooshort]

Cheers - that is some top top dodging. Well done Aristotle.

[Gandalf]

These dice stats are now available from the competition (ie league table) page. They are also available by team, rather than by player, if that's all the granualarity you want.

Some example stats from there...
- Rav failed 10 out of 54 GFI's this season. That's almost the expected average! Exceptionally good by his standards!
- The Cheesosophers made the most GFI attempts this season, 130.
- The Entheogen Experiment had the worst luck with Foul Appearance (ie trying to hit Nurgles) failing 8 out of 25, though No Stable Isotopes with 5 failures out of 15 are contenders for that title too.
- Revenge of last plaice only passed 12 of their 29 KO recovery rolls. Ouch.
- The Cheeseosophers were terrible at picking the ball up. From 40 attempts they rolled 14 1's!

[Red Lion Three]

Nice one Gandalf.