Season 4 Prediction Thread

[DaigaroOgami]

Also you're due some pain, that AV 7 has been holding way too well

He's even got an AV6 player that isn't dead yet!!!!11

[Gandalf]

No Elf jealousy here, PirlOrc just wants an open exciting league (The Championship, League 1, etc, not the SPL or that Spanish league).

The SPL is quite exciting at the moment!!! 4 points separating the top half

I'm not saying "ha I'm going to win, I'm so awesome" but that it's going to be rare to stop me scoring twice and I don't think the undercheesers have the tools to manage that. That doesn't mean the opposition can't score 2 or 3 times :p

What's happened to the undercheesers this year anyway? I haven't seen them play but they finished 2-2-4 last season (they even lost to my ogres), and the are already 2-1-0 this season. Perhaps I am underestimating them.

He's even got an AV6 player that isn't dead yet!!!!11

Wyld tried to beat him to death but failed. Other opponents have been too scared by the treeman standing next to him to try and hurt him. :p

[id3nt1ty]

Perhaps I am underestimating them.

Probably not.

[Raveen]

FWIW my plan against the Woodies will likely be:

Let them score 1 quickly.

Hit them.

Grind in a TD for 1-1 Half Time

Hit them.

Grind out an 8 turner and hit them.

Watch out for the 1TTD, if there are enough elves left.

Hit them even though the game is over

We'll see how long that lasts shan't we

[DaigaroOgami]

Percy told me that 3 dead elves = 1 TD....

[lawastooshort]

Got a bit carried away looking at BBM's 260000 recorded matches and its lists of win percentages of teams vs teams. I made a slight adjustment to take into account Temmop's inexperience. Calculating the statistically probable league table, the top two and bottom two are very clearly defined, but places 3-8 have practically nothing in it!


For this week! Stats say:

Carrions ? – ? Stagocalypse DEFINITE KHEMRI WIN (or maybe draw)

Eballa ? - ? Fables PROBABLE NECRO WIN (or maybe draw)

Wanderers ? - ? UnderCheesers DEFINITE WELF WIN

Orc types ? – ? Short types PROBABLE DRAW (maybe Orc win)

Cangurus ? - ? Tomb Army DEFINITE PELF WIN (with inexperience adjustment)

[Gandalf]

Carrions ? – ? Stagocalypse DEFINITE KHEMRI WIN (or maybe draw)

Interesting definition of the word "definite" being used here :p

Calculating the statistically probable league table, the top two and bottom two are very clearly defined, but places 3-8 have practically nothing in it!

So I'm guessing two lots of elves top, undercheesers and.... errr.... undead bottom??

[lawastooshort]

Interesting definition of the word "definite" being used here

Ha! Yes, I don’t really know how to best use what I’ve generated to make that kind of judgement – it’s quite a flaw.

So I'm guessing two lots of elves top, undercheesers and.... errr.... undead bottom??

No!

I significantly reduced the chance of Andy winning because it would be stupid to have him at the top in his first season, which leaves the table below. This is just based on the total of the average results of each team vs its league opponents as per the 260,000 games in BBM.

Wood elf
Necro
Pro elf
Dwarf / Nurgle / Orc
Norse / Khemri
Uwd
Undead

There's a few minor changes if you don’t take TV into account – Khemri is the biggest change. They do 8% worse at TV1200 than at TV1000 or all TVs! You need to stop levelling up them damn Tomb Guardians, Raveen, or you’re doomed!


edit: anyway, that's enough of this nonsense for now although I might do an occasional stats-based prediction for weekly results

[Raveen]

I was surprised that Khemri seem to do best at starting TV, and I've heard it from multiple sources.

I suspect that there's a lot of bloat on a Khemri team if you don't get lucky. TGs with more than two regular skills? Liable to bloat (Break Tackle or Stand Firm are good skills, but lack the utility of MB, Guard or Block).

Thor Ras are the worst. After 1 skill they're done really. Give them block and that's all they need. And these are the players most likely to skill up...

Skellies don't get skills so don't add to the bloat.

Blitz Ras... Dunno, normal blitzers with S access are good investments so I see no reason why these guys wouldn't be - the G access adds things like Tackle and Frenzy that are much better than the later choices on the S path.

[lawastooshort]

I was surprised that Khemri seem to do best at starting TV, and I've heard it from multiple sources.

Yes, it's odd. It might be that as your TV goes up, it's likely your opponents' TV does do - and a few skills here and there might make the difference needed to combat Khemri's main strength, their... strength.

But this doesn't really explain that, in fact, only Chaos, Nurgle, and both Elves get better results as their TV increases, out of the last two seasons' teams.

[Raveen]

How much you improve as TV rises is a question of stats and skill access.

Compare Dwarves to Chaos (similar games styles, reverse fortunes)

Dwarves start out with everything you need, lots of block, all positionals, average to poor stats. As the get skill ups they run out of best value skills early (guard, MB and after that...) and their stats are likely to vary very little.

Chaos start with better stats but not skills beyond horns. So each skillup is worth a lot and the additional access to Mutation skills means that they can follow an optimal path for longer.

If you want a good team at high TV then look at starting stats, not skills.

[lawastooshort]

Yes, that sounds about right.

[DaigaroOgami]

So you're saying the game is biased towards Elves?

And that, if you pick Elves, you're basically cheating?

And that, if you have a team of cheaters it's a perfectly viable tactic to stomp the moss out of 'em?

[Raveen]

Except Dark Elves...

[lawastooshort]

Er.. at all TVs, Dark Elves are joint 4th best team...

High Elves and Pro Elves are worse than dwarves...