Season 4 Prediction Thread

[Gandalf]

Ducklingz vs Wanderers - I think the Orcs have developed somewhat from the team who got destroyed by the Ogres last season (Orcs still won though). I'll go for the reverse - 2-1 to the elves, with the elves getting hurt somewhat (my insane luck with avoiding serious injuries has to end at some point, surely?).

Fables vs Cangurus - A mid-table battle here but I think Cangurus will re-ignite their title challenge with a 2-1 win.

Carrions vs Dwarves - Despite being not-entirely-alive, I think the Carrions will be more durable, and Dwarves tackle skill will not be much use against them. Saying that, I'm going for 1-0 to the Carrions, or possibly 1-1, much as ever will depend on the Carrion's luck with picking up the ball.

Stagocalypse vs Undercheesers - The current top two! I'm going for a draw, purely for selfish reasons. 1-1.

Eballa vs Tomb Army - Eballa are having a rough season, with luck & injury issues. Tomb Army - I have no intel to go on other than their details. Doubt there will be more than 2 TD's, so I'll go 1-1.

The league race is going to look a lot clearer after this weekend, with the current top 2 playing and my wood elves playing twice. I think we'll be down to 4-5 possible winners, those three, and if the carrions or cangurus win then they will be right in it too.

[notjarvis]

Games predictions.

Ducklingz vs Wanderers - Just because I kindof feel sorry for diag - I'll predict his luck has to turn at some point and Predict a 2-1 to the orcs

Fables vs Cangurus - Cangurus to win 3-1. Just got too many skills and variety to stop i think. (I was lucky to get a draw versus them)

Carrions vs Dwarves - Carrions to plod a 2-0 victory.

Stagocalypse vs Undercheesers -
I will probably lose this weekend. My Chaos Team Struggled with the Undercheesers last time, Can't see the kindof similar (but more fragile) stags being any different. plus I need to lose sometime - I haven't lost since season 2.

Undercheesers to win 2-0

Eballa vs Tomb Army - Eballa have a good coach and despite some poor results should turn it around to win 2-1


Are we at the midpoint - as far as the championship - I think the Wood Elves have it as I can't really see anyone having the tools to stop them completely (unless he gets some freakish bad luck with injuries or something).

[lawastooshort]

Are we at the midpoint - as far as the championship - I think the Wood Elves have it as I can't really see anyone having the tools to stop them completely (unless he gets some freakish bad luck with injuries or something).

I agree - unless you win on Sunday (I suspect you will), in which case whoever wins the Norse vs Wood Elf match will probably be champions.

[Gandalf]

Yeah, *someone* needs to beat the Norse for me to win, thankfully it's still in my control, we meet in the penultimate week.

I think the Wood Elves have it as I can't really see anyone having the tools to stop them completely (unless he gets some freakish bad luck with injuries or something).

If my ball handling luck doesn't improve from the last couple of weeks I'm not going to win this weekend....
Plus you predicted me to lose to the Orcs anyway! To win the title with 7W 2L will require a bit of luck.

[notjarvis]

Yeah, *someone* needs to beat the Norse for me to win, thankfully it's still in my control, we meet in the penultimate week.

I think the Wood Elves have it as I can't really see anyone having the tools to stop them completely (unless he gets some freakish bad luck with injuries or something).

If my ball handling luck doesn't improve from the last couple of weeks I'm not going to win this weekend....
Plus you predicted me to lose to the Orcs anyway! To win the title with 7W 2L will require a bit of luck.

My Heart says Diagorami's luck has to change at some point (that's the only reason i put it in).

My head says the Wood Elves are a good enough team to beat the Depleted Orcs.

[Raveen]

FWIW I intend to break both elf teams. But I'm playing them in the last games.

In the interests of balance I'm planning on breaking the Norse too...

[id3nt1ty]

*phew*

[Gandalf]

My head says the Wood Elves are a good enough team to beat the Depleted Orcs.

12 players, including a troll, 3 black orcs (one with ST5), an ag4 level 4 passer, 8 players with block and the third most experienced lineup in the competition.

This is against a wood elf team missing one of their wardancers (level 4) plus a level 2 lineman, and no subs (though I will probably buy a lineman before the weekend).

I don't see myself as against a depleted lineup.

FWIW I intend to break both elf teams. But I'm playing them in the last games.

You gotta catch them before you can hit them :p

[notjarvis]

Kindof strangely. After tonights results.

The only two teams which have the Championship result entirely in their own hands at the moment is Stagocalypse and the Pinewood Carrions (if they win their two games in hand and Beat my team they should be favourites :-)


In reality I've got three of my toughest games to finish off the league, all against battle hardened "Vet" teams, so I really don't think the result of this league is cut and dried at all.

Specially if Rav makes a mess of my team next week (which is entirely possible)

[Gandalf]

A team with 5 wins 1 draw and no defeats needs 2 wins out of 3 to win the title (except in the unlikely event of the Carrions winning all 5 of their remaining games and a big swing in touchdown difference....)

Or to look at it the other way, what combinations of results could result in the other contenders winning the title?
You get 4 or less points against Rav & Diagro, lose to me, and I win my other 2.
You get 3 points total from your last 3 games, lawastooshort wins his two and pips you to the title.
You get 3 points total from your last 3 games, Idanmel wins his three and beats you on TD diff.
Raveen's team wins 5 out of 5. You fail to win both of your other matches.

Those things are unlikely to happen, but it's not a tiny chance that none of them happen. I'd put the chances of you winning the title somewhere around 65% atm. My team is on 15% (or 1% if trends shown on the graph I posted continues), la 11%, and Idan 7% and Raveen 2% (no offence!).

Week 8 is going to be one exciting week, with us two playing each other. That is, assuming the dice don't repeat what they did back in Feb.

[notjarvis]

A team with 5 wins 1 draw and no defeats needs 2 wins out of 3 to win the title (except in the unlikely event of the Carrions winning all 5 of their remaining games and a big swing in touchdown difference....)

Looks a lot more unlikely now. :-)

I've lost 3 skilled players in 2 games. I'm down to 11 players with skinny armour, and I have to play you (after Dai has bashed me up some more)

You are easily clear favourite now.

[Gandalf]

A team with 5 wins 1 draw and no defeats needs 2 wins out of 3 to win the title (except in the unlikely event of the Carrions winning all 5 of their remaining games and a big swing in touchdown difference....)

Looks a lot more unlikely now. :-)

I've lost 3 skilled players in 2 games. I'm down to 11 players with skinny armour, and I have to play you (after Dai has bashed me up some more)

You are easily clear favourite now.

Favourite? Probably. I still probably need to win 2 out of 2 - so I'm not sure I'd put any team over 50% just yet though. I like that, if we draw, the Undercheesers can sneak through and take the title. With Rav/Idan still in it, we could have 4 teams with a chance of winning on the last day. Even if you beat me, it could still go down to the last day.

I just lost a level 3 lineman too, and I'm just as weakly armoured as you (except for the treeman). In fact I noticed that we are the top 2 teams in the biggest punching bags chart. Could be brutal next week.

[notjarvis]

I just lost a level 3 lineman too, and I'm just as weakly armoured as you (except for the treeman). In fact I noticed that we are the top 2 teams in the biggest punching bags chart. Could be brutal next week.

Thats a big Except, and your team far outstrips me in the skill stakes. I'm AG3 to, and have just lost the only guy with sure hands.

[Gandalf]

I just lost a level 3 lineman too, and I'm just as weakly armoured as you (except for the treeman). In fact I noticed that we are the top 2 teams in the biggest punching bags chart. Could be brutal next week.

Thats a big Except, and your team far outstrips me in the skill stakes. I'm AG3 to, and have just lost the only guy with sure hands.

I was just responding to your comment about injuries. I also forgot about Alan the AV6 Elf. I should call him The Elf Who Lived. If you want to widen the discussion, then I doubt you'll only have AG3 AV7 guys yourself, once you figure out what do spend all that inducement cash on. And you have more block than I do.

[lawastooshort]

Week 7:
Cangurus vs Tomb Army – Cangurus. Dodge dodge pass dodge score. Bash.
Brawlers vs Carrions – Carrions. Bash bash bash bash whoops. Bash. I think the Khemri are probably going to be more solid and that’s what’ll count.

Week 8:
Fables vs Ducklingz – Draw. Bash bash boing whoops ha! Bash. Pass. Geologers’ derby again.
Undercheesers vs Eballa – Undercheesers. Urg! Help! Eek! Dodge. Scurry. On paper the Nurgle should be slight favourites but I have to win this to keep my top 3 hopes alive so I’m going say the lads will win.
Stags vs Wanderers – Wanderers. Dodge dodge ouch pass. Dodge dodge ouch pass. Leap. This is a tricky one to call but in the end I think the elf scoring power will win the day. Probably the most important game of rest of the season. If it’s a draw the Pro Elves are new favourites.
Cangurus vs Carrions – Cangurus. Dodge bash dodge bash ouch score. Crikey – I’d love to say Carrions and have the above game draw, but it’s unlikely.
Brawlers vs Tomb Army – Draw. Bash bash bash bash bother. It might well be a massive stodgefest with both TDs coming from something not entirely intentional.

Week 9:
Brawlers vs Undercheesers – Draw. Ouch ouch ouch ouch ouch ouch ouch. I don’t really want to play the dwarves. I don’t like my poor goblins getting repeatedly smashed in the face. But that’s what they signed up to.
Wanderers vs Carrions – Draw. Dodge dodge bash again. Leap dash bodge. Yeah actually probably not – another hard one to call and probably the elven ballfiends will win it.
Eballa vs Cangurus – Cangurus – Bash urg dodge dodge score. Can’t see Nurgle stopping the elves enough.
Ducklingz vs Stags – Stags. Bash? Dodge? Bash bash? Stags are the form team, Brian.
Fables vs Tomb Army – Fables. Bash bash bash bash run crikey score. Tomb Army can now do Violence – will they have learnt Scoring by match day 9?

Table:
Wanderers - 19
Stags - 19
Cangurus - 19
Cheesers - 18

Overall – I’d prefer an elf team to win because I don’t think the Undercheesers will, and they’re itching for a rematch with the Stags and this won’t happen otherwise. Also if an elf team wins, I’ll have kept up a two season tradition of not losing to the champions