What Socrates Thinks - SEASON GRAND FINALE

[lawastooshort]

Arg - BBM used to have that massed casualty per match caused and received data

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What Pythagoras Thinks

Day One!

Hell yeah!

The Entheogen Experiment v Raveen (Norse)
Players to look out for: the horny git with ST4, and the horny git with AG4. With the beserkers and wolf things on top of this, it could be a crazy frenzyfest!
Things to look out for: daring elflike two turn passing plays, the crowd getting stuck in. Fumbled pick ups.
What will happen: the Norse have the advantage here. Even 2d horned blitzes aren’t reliable when they are unskilled vs Block.

No Stable Isotopes v Punch Dummies
Players to look out for: Two mean blitzers. Two mean trolls!
Things to look out for: Hot troll on troll action. Two mean blitzers rolling a lot of defender stumbles.
What will happen: A surprising lack of violence and expansive bloodbowl after which the Underworld will win.

The Cheeseosophers v Revenge of last plaice
Players to look out for: Not me, sucker! I’ll be at the doctor getting my trapped nerve checked out.
Things to look out for: Cheeses leaving the pitch at a record setting rate. Undead trundling implacably down the pitch.
What will happen: The Vampires will run out of players yet miraculously snatch a draw.

It's A Sign! v Idanmel (Amazon)
Players to look out for: The best roadblock in RTBBL.
Things to look out for: The best roadblock in RTBBL stodging up the stodgy Amazon.
What will happen: The AG4 rotter will fling a long pass, the Nurgle will win 2-1.

[lawastooshort]

What Socrates Thinks

Socrates doesn't think: he staats:

1 - Underworld
2 - Undead
3 - Amazon
4 - Nurgle
5 - Norse
6 - Vampires
7 - Khorne
8 - Goblins

[lawastooshort]

Archimedes thinks: oh bloody hell, Nurgle next!

[lawastooshort]

What Pythagoras Thought (Part 1 of 2, if the other half of the league gets their act together)

The Cheeseosophers v Revenge of last plaice
Players to look out for: Ramtut was heading towards the MVP until dropping the pass that let Aristotle waltz in, grab the ball from under his nose, and score the winner.
Things to look out for: Ramtut trundling down the pitch scoring the opener like an undead prop forward.
What will happen: The Vampires ran low on players in the first half yet miraculously snatched a win.

It's A Sign! V FC Yo Momma Utd (Amazon)
Players to look out for: Who knows – the official write up hasn’t been filed yet, but let’s go with One Way Street who double skulled a block twice before the winning touchdown could be scored?
Things to look out for: The Amazon outdeading the Nurgles! The Nurgles outpassing the Amazon!
What will happen: The AG4 rotter did fling a pass but my reading of the log is that it was short.

[Gandalf]

Players to look out for: Who knows – the official write up hasn’t been filed yet, but let’s go with One Way Street who double skulled a block twice before the winning touchdown could be scored?

Hmmm yes... maybe one of us will write up something slightly longer.... it's only going to stick in the mind for the way it ended though

What will happen: The AG4 rotter did fling a pass but my reading of the log is that it was short.

Yes, it was a 2+ pickup (with a reroll) 2+ pass (shortest range possible) and 2+ catch (extra arms pestigor). The sort of situation where the opposition is so far away that you may as well try and get 1SPP by doing a pass rather than a hand-off. I don't know why you go on about this guy when you have an AG4 cheese guy who in addition to AG4 also has pass...

[lawastooshort]

Pythagoras probably thought an AG4 rotter sticks out more than just another AG4 player on a Vampire team. You'll be able to ask him in person next game though.

[lawastooshort]

What Archimedes Thinks: Match Day 2

With additional bonus input from Socstates, arising early from his Stats Crypt!


The Entheogen Experiment vs Punch Dummies
Reeling from their MD1 massacre, can the Punch Dummies bounce back against the as-yet-untested-due-to-opposing-coach-failure Khorne?

Probably not! Khorne teams earn on average a full quarter of a point more per game, although that’s less than one standard deviation of the average points per game spread, so may be a meaningless stat. (Note from Socrates: Steady on there! I’ve seen fellow philosophers forced to poison themselves naked for similar levels of blasphemy as putting those two words together!)

If the trolls and the chainsaw are on form, the Khornes could have a difficult time, but with a huge number of potential 2d Frenzy blocks against the gobbos, the trolls could find themselves outnumbered sharpish.

If Archimedes wasn’t above the use of money, he’d bet on the Khorne to win 3-1 with at least one outrageous pass.

Raveen (Norse) vs Revenge of last plaice
Rav is a top top cup coach, but we’ve never really seen him perform well in a league. Furthermore, this is an entirely rookie team, owing to the coach’s lack of league match organising skills – it’s likely he would have been able to organise his MD1 game if it were a cup match.

Furthermore, this is one of the few match ups we have surviving stats for – stats that heavily show the Norse to be underdogs. In Norse vs Undead matches, Undead historically win 50%, with Norse only winning 30%. Overall, Undead also earn 0.21 points per game more than Norse.

Even furthermore, the Undead won’t have that eejit Ramtut Three trying to ponce about like an elf doing all catching and stuff.

I suspect it will be 1-1.

No Stable Isotopes vs Yo Momma FC
On paper, this is one of the easiest results to predict. Yo Momma FC got a shock result against the league favourites last match, murdering several players in the process, so are clearly in form, and it’s the match this week with the biggest points per game difference between the teams – Amazon win a whopping 0.31 points per game more than Underworld on average.

Coach Idan is also a top top league coach and reigning champion. Is there anything the Isotopes can do about it?

Hell yes! They can bring the severe moral advantage of being Underworld – coach ID3 has put up with leading them in competitive battle for a seventh of a league season now! – and also the morale advantage of having removed every enemy player from the pitch in their last outing!

This shouldn’t happen this time round though: the Underworld have no Tackle and the Amazon have no ST2.

The Amazon should win 2-1, but I’d also fancy the league leaders to scrape a draw.

The Cheeseosophers vs It's A Sign!
Any team that averages 0.13 points per game more than the other has to be favourites, so I’m backing Nurgle to win this one.

Many omens are in their favour, too. For their last two league outings, the Cheeseosophers lost their opening match and then went on to go undefeated all season. Guess who won their opening match this time round! The next 6 matches are not looking good. Coach la is on an appalling run of form at the moment too, having lost his last competitive match 3-0 (Note from editor: it was AWFUL). The great Archimedes (that’s me!) got a trapped nerve in the last game vs fellow undead team Revenge of last plaice, so the rookie Plato (i.e. NOT SOCRATES TWO) will be stepping in whilst he does a week’s course of Pilates – and Plato’s too busy founding the entirety of Western Thought to really do that much on a bloodbowl pitch. Finally, the Nurgles are likely to get a bunch of inducements, and probably spend them on a herd of rotter fodder just to taunt the noble Vampires who never have enough of their own. Gah. No! Wait! Even more finally – the Vampires are the league’s top passing team, and that’s just not gonna work with them repulsive Nurglites, is it. No.

Gah.

1-0 to It’s A Sign!

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What Archimedes Thinks: Match Day 3

With additional stats from Socracheese, emerging days ahead of schedule from his cheese crypt!

Archimedes has a lot of time to think, recently, BUT THIS WEEK HE’S BACK!

The Entheogen Experiment vs Revenge of last plaice
Both stats and logic side with the Undead here, with the Undead earning an average of 0.39 points per game more than the cheating Khorne felons. And although the Khorne have a lot of Horns and Frenzy, the Undead have the strength and skills to counter that, and even have the pace of four ghouls.

So do the Khornes have any advantage? How about some AG4? Possibly some inducements? If they get a wizard that works, that could change things, but otherwise I’d expect the Revenge to win by 1. Let it be noted that the ghouls are a weak point, though.

Punch Dummies vs Yo Momma FC
With the goblins earning 0.91ppg and the Mommas 1.48, this match-up is the widest theoretical performance gap of the week! Which may be a recurring theme with the Dummies.

The Mommas were briefly top of the league, I think, and clearly have the skills to do well. And they probably won’t even need them, since they are playing gobbos! They just have to turn up, right!?

And yet! The Dummies are the second most violent team in the league, and are surely going to enjoy continuing this against the AV7 Amazons. But! I hear you protest – but what about all that Dodge?

Chainsaws don’t care about no Dodge, sucker!

I expect the Amazons to win by 2.

Raveen (Norse) vs It's A Sign!
Would you believe that both Norse and Nurgle earn exactly 1.36 points per game! However, in head to heads this changes somewhat. The Nurgle win 43% and draw 21%, leaving a feeble 36% of games won by the Norse. This translates to the Nurgle winning 1.5 points per game vs 1.29! Crikey!

Anyway, enough of this nonsense. Cup coach Rav has the strong-early-on Norse against Gandalf’s strong-later-on Nurgle. We’ve no idea how the theoretical Norse team actually perform, but we know that the Nurgles have the most knock downs in the league (which probably isn’t saying much after 2 games, one of which was against thralls).

I expect the Nurgle drive to trundle on relentlessly, and then for the Norse to get totally stodged up and desperately resort to a reckless pass, which will go hideously wrong as Rav forgot about Disturbing Presence.

Nurgle to win by 1. A wizard messing up the relentless trundle could change things, however.

No Stable Isotopes vs The Cheeseosophers
There’s a reason they’re calling this the game of the season, you know.

Wait!

No!

There are MANY reasons!

The two highest scorers in the league! The most violent team in the league! The top passers! The top defenders! The two top runners! The two top punching bag teams! The closeness of a team (Underworld) that earns 1.17 points per game against one that earns a full 0.06 more!

Quite simply, this is a game featuring the crème de la crème of the Bloodbowl world – so much crème that some of it’s become fromage.

Like all thinking cheeseosophers the world (and indeed space time continuum) over, I’m calling this one 6-4 to the Vampires.

[lawastooshort]

Arg – Archimedes thinks Coach la is an eejit for 1/giving away all his secrets 2/using the wrong sort of dice so far this season and 3/getting half the team murdered.

Now that he is back from a period of intense reflection, Archimedes may return for some lighter thinking this week.

[lawastooshort]

After a two week layoff due to a sprained cheese muscle, Archimedes is BACK TO THINKING! And statting. Apologies that his thoughts are quite brief though.


The Entheogen Experiment vs It's A Sign!
Yeah! The Chaos Derby! Nurgle are far more skilled and earn a fifth of a point more, on average, every single game, than Khorne teams do. And that Beast of Nurgle isn’t going anywhere once it gets there, is it.

The joker up the Khornish sleeve is their mental elven play, but the Nurgles can feck that right up with their repulsive exteriors, so it’s more like a joker up the Nurglish sleeve.

2-0 to the Nurgle.

Idanmel (Amazon) vs The Cheeseosophers
Amazons get over 0.3 of a point more per game than Vampires do. That’s that then.

It’s true that the Cheeseosophers have quite a lot of skills and Team Value, but they only have one player with Tackle, and have suffered appalling dice and injury luck this season. Yes, they beat the goblins last time out, but honestly, who doesn’t? No offence Coach Abom.

2-0 to the Amazons.

Revenge of last plaice vs No Stable Isotopes
The Und derby. 0.38 points per game difference in favour of the Last Plaicers. Should be a foregone conclusion. However! The Revengers are not doing so well this season, whilst the Isotopes’ form is red hot (and quite stable). But what about the coach? He’s probably feeling a bit unstable himself and possibly not up to concentrating, or indeed even turning up.

2-0 to the Undead.

Punch Dummies vs Raveen (Norse)
0.45 points per game difference! Phwoar! Most uneven match up of the weekend, statistically, and also in terms of amount of Block per team. And in terms of players eaten by a troll last game. Still, all that AV7 could be really bad if the chainsaw can stay on the pitch. Let’s hope he can.

3-1 to the Norse.

[Abomination]

Idanmel (Amazon) vs The Cheeseosophers
Amazons get over 0.3 of a point more per game than Vampires do. That’s that then.

Yes, they beat the goblins last time out, but honestly, who doesn’t?

Idan doesn't! Not this season, anyway. Go Goblins!

Go Amazons! My new policy is to only cheer on teams I beat.

[Gandalf]

Go Amazons! My new policy is to only cheer on teams I beat.

Yeah! Go Everglade Wanderers, the world's finest players of the beautiful game!

And that Beast of Nurgle isn’t going anywhere once it gets there, is it.

Yeah, if only Khorne had Juggernaut. Oh wait...

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Brief Thoughts from Archimedes Today!

The Entheogen Experiment vs The Cheeseosophers
Krohne are technically worse than Vampires (1.16ppg vs 1.23, a tiny tiny difference), but every single player on the team has Horns, which as Coach Daigaro well knows, is a Mutation, and, therefore, as he very often states in public ad nauseum, cheating. With such widespread cheating against the ultimate fairplay clean team, it's impossible to see anything but a 3-1 win for the Kohrnes.

It's A Sign! vs No Stable Isotopes
A title deciding clash between two of the top contenders which is likely to end in blood and disappointment and stodge. The Underworld's chief advantage as a team, apart from the moral advantage which very rarely has any practical application on the field of battle, is mobility, something the Nurglers are experts at stifling. Nurgle are generally better than Underworld, have 0.19ppg advantage, and are better and better the more expensive they get. One trainee blitzer isn't going to change that, but I'm going to be optimistic and predict the Underworld to scrape a draw.

Idanmel (Amazon) vs Raveen (Norse)
Two teams that have both been named since the fixtures were posted, but that I can't be bothered to type the names for, they are also two teams full of vital basic blood bowl skills but very little in the way of athleticism, if you like. Short technical players playing a fancy continental brand of quick passing and high pressing who don't like it up 'em - I predict the winning team to be the one who puts in the early reducers and wangs more long balls into the box.

2-1 to aforementioned team.

Revenge of last plaice vs Punch Dummies
Hard not to go with the form team here, really, isn't it, although every single stat and morsel of logic suggests it should be the statistically best team winning against the statistically worst team.

So let's sit on the 1-1 fence.

[Red Lion Three]

Given that its really sunny, Red Lion - as a self-respecting cat - thinks sitting on the fence tonight is a very good idea. And besides, everyone on the team will be equipped with a ball of really thick twine, the mortal enemy of garden powertools. That should nullify that pesky chainsaw.